Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 17.689873 20.169642 22.848281 25.953815 29.452196 33.268187 37.743013
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 13.910594 17.227066 21.088658 25.905416 31.740519 38.567844 47.148811
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.165464 15.879653 20.414863 26.338166 33.846583 43.021581 55.055519
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 10.718067 14.660808 19.682315 26.512303 35.521157 46.954333 62.515240
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 9.462091 13.485155 18.801228 26.291663 36.517577 49.925488 68.762470
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 8.597762 12.717070 18.344288 26.528669 38.051289 53.604676 76.080072
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 8.069250 12.343974 18.361592 27.367384 40.401417 58.457487 85.212121
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 7.292177 11.525191 17.659687 27.096543 41.121246 61.037945 91.263940
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 6.323641 10.322444 16.286095 25.711950 40.089063 61.007438 93.502073
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 5.991848 10.062506 16.287937 26.363307 42.083065 65.441931 102.467673
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.706355 9.845506 16.328691 27.059118 44.162636 70.086764 111.965190
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.257241 9.320012 15.837640 26.869413 44.831648 72.598969 118.305690
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.772716 8.702532 15.164966 26.359187 44.989764 74.378486 123.693897
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.435097 8.307000 14.826126 26.369195 45.983049 77.519043 131.405351
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.204998 8.077188 14.742505 26.789151 47.658410 81.813743 141.165412
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.955575 7.789551 14.534318 26.972818 48.933087 85.502841 150.100768
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.664997 7.399383 14.113364 26.746352 49.473970 87.978056 157.105493
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.470028 7.171811 13.964391 26.987952 50.833932 91.885210 166.706235
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 3.374894 7.128356 14.147080 27.840015 53.321105 97.838135 180.107208
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.137505 6.783146 13.739492 27.564871 53.740473 100.192759 187.309371
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.781619 6.167253 12.770076 26.157770 51.979353 98.579386 187.358593
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.698287 6.106943 12.874048 26.819720 54.125527 104.078785 200.464061
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 2.624190 6.059581 12.998862 27.526818 56.390636 109.892921 214.400997